BoT: Rate slash still a possibility

[Rice]

Even though the Bank of Thailand believes the current policy rate would boost economic recovery this year, it has left the door open to a possible cut if the economy is slower than expected or unexpected...

link:http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/467792/bot-rate-slash-still-a-possibility.

In the article I almost split myself laughing. Bank of Thailand says:
"The local currency had gained against the euro, yen, Australian dollar and currencies of net oil exporters, but these countries are facing economic problems. Foreign exchange has a lesser impact on export growth compared with other components, Mr Prasarn said without elaborating on other components".

WTF1Is he talking about. Last time I looked Thailand was a primary exporter. A high Baht would have to effect this. "Compared to other components!!"
What other components are greater then this.?? A classic case of talking from his buttshake.

 

[Coffee]

a lower THB interest rate - a higher USD xe-rate

I've been watching this scenario closely since the USD passed 32.5 vs THB.

The only conclusion I can see is if the Bank of Thailand continues to reduce interest rates it can only lift the USD exchange rate vs THB.

In 2011 when the US 10-Year Treasury rate was 3.5%, the XE was 31.
In 2014 when the US 10-Year Treasury rate was 3% , the XE was 32.8.
Now Treasury yield at 2.4% and we're looking at the cusp of 34.
US Treasury rates don't seem to have an effect given the above experience of past 4 1/2 years..

The USD vs THB rate seems to have it's root strictly as to where the Bank of Thailand's interest rates are actually moving (or perceived to be heading) as opposed to anything else - stock indexes , gold price or US Fed policy. (IMO).

What are your thoughts ...or is it the same as roulette in your eyes ? shrug1

Of course - ShitHappens1 so please take all this with a grain of salt.

As for AUD and NZD - hell , I'm clueless and really don't have any skin in that game.
Maybe just a future holiday to watch Kangaroo ARL and Kiwi rugby league.